Demographic Divergence and the Future of Global Economic Power: A Conceptual Analysis of Population Asymmetry
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66203/econovia.01103Keywords:
demographic divergence, population asymmetry, demographic transition, migration and labor mobility, global economic power, demographic economicsAbstract
Demographic change is increasingly uneven across countries, producing divergent trajectories of fertility decline, population aging, and migration dynamics. While some advanced economies face shrinking labor forces and rising dependency burdens, many emerging economies continue to experience expanding working-age populations. This article develops a conceptual framework explaining how such demographic divergence may reshape the distribution of global economic power. The study introduces the concept of population asymmetry, defined as structural differences across countries in labor-force renewal capacity, dependency burdens, and market expansion potential resulting from uneven demographic transitions. Building on insights from demographic economics, migration studies, and international political economy, the article identifies four transmission mechanisms through which demographic asymmetry influences economic outcomes: production capacity asymmetry, demand structure asymmetry, mobility connectivity asymmetry, and fiscal dependency asymmetry. The framework further highlights the moderating roles of human capital development, technological capability, institutional capacity, and migration policies. By integrating previously fragmented literatures, the article proposes a conceptual model of demographic power rebalancing, suggesting that persistent demographic asymmetries may gradually reshape global economic hierarchies through differential growth trajectories, shifting trade centrality, and evolving patterns of investment and labor mobility.
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